{ "schema_version": "market-tactical-agent-v1.1", "generated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "source_status": { "fmp": { "status": "ok", "quotes_ok": 20, "historical_ok": 20, "news_ok": 20, "calendar_ok": true, "symbols_failed": [], "symbols_requested": 20, "cache_enabled": true, "cache_hit_count": 1, "cache_miss_count": 65, "cache_hit_endpoints": { "earnings-calendar": 1 }, "cache_hit_endpoint_oldest_age_minutes": { "earnings-calendar": 1.1 }, "oldest_cache_hit_age_minutes": 1.1, "max_cache_age_minutes": 1.1, "quote_cache_ttl_minutes": 15, "news_cache_ttl_minutes": 30, "market_movers_cache_ttl_minutes": 15, "calendar_cache_ttl_minutes": 360, "symbols_failed_count": 0, "symbols_succeeded": 20 }, "jquants": { "status": "ok", "daily_ok": 24, "master_ok": 24, "earnings_calendar_ok": 24, "margin_interest_ok": 24, "financial_summary_ok": true, "capabilities": { "listed_info": "ok", "daily_bars": "ok", "earnings_calendar": "ok", "financial_summary": "ok", "financial_details": "unavailable", "margin_interest": "ok", "short_ratio": "unavailable", "trading_breakdown": "unavailable" }, "symbols_failed": [], "symbols_requested": 24, "symbols_failed_count": 0, "symbols_succeeded": 24 }, "universe": { "mode": "curated_core_with_bounded_discovery", "generated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "curated": { "fmp_symbol_count": 17, "jp_symbol_count": 14, "exposure_theme_count": 4 }, "discovery": { "enabled": true, "lanes": [ "event", "change", "pressure", "intraday" ], "fmp_event_extra_candidates": 1681, "fmp_event_extra_allowed": 1, "fmp_event_extra_selected": 3, "fmp_event_extra_candidates_raw": 1681, "fmp_event_extra_prefiltered": 3, "fmp_event_extra_deep_fetch_selected": 3, "fmp_event_extra_allowed_after_quality": 1, "fmp_event_extra_rejected_after_quality": 2, "fmp_market_discovery_candidates": 50, "fmp_market_discovery_allowed": 0, "fmp_market_discovery_rejected_missing_price": 0, "fmp_market_discovery_rejected_thin_exchange": 0, "fmp_market_discovery_rejected_low_dollar_volume": 50, "fmp_market_discovery_rejected_low_move": 0, "fmp_market_discovery_rejected_duplicate_or_curated": 0, "jp_discovery_candidates": 60, "jp_discovery_allowed": 10, "raw_candidate_count": 1822, "allowed_candidate_count": 44, "discovered_candidate_count": 13, "skipped_reasons": [], "discovered_signal_count": 8, "fmp_event_extra_signal_count": 3 }, "request_budget": { "max_fmp_quote_symbols": 50, "max_fmp_event_extra_symbols": 18, "max_fmp_market_discovery_raw": 50, "max_fmp_market_discovery_symbols": 15, "max_jp_deep_symbols": 40, "max_jp_discovery_symbols": 10, "max_total_external_requests_estimate": 280, "cache_ttl_minutes_quote": 15, "cache_ttl_minutes_news": 30, "cache_ttl_minutes_market_movers": 15, "cache_ttl_hours_calendar": 6, "cache_ttl_hours_historical_eod": 24, "cache_ttl_hours_master_listed": 24, "cache_ttl_hours_jq_daily_bars": 6 }, "request_estimate": 169, "candidates": [ { "symbol": "NVDA", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:NVDA" }, { "symbol": "AMD", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:AMD" }, { "symbol": "AVGO", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:AVGO" }, { "symbol": "SMH", "market": "US ETF", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:SMH" }, { "symbol": "SOXX", "market": "US ETF", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:SOXX" }, { "symbol": "AAPL", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Mega-cap Tech", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:AAPL" }, { "symbol": "MSFT", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Mega-cap Tech", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:MSFT" }, { "symbol": "TSLA", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Auto / Growth", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:TSLA" }, { "symbol": "COIN", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:COIN" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:MSTR" }, { "symbol": "BTCUSD", "market": "Crypto", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:BTCUSD" }, { "symbol": "ETHUSD", "market": "Crypto", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:ETHUSD" }, { "symbol": "USDJPY", "market": "FX", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:USDJPY" }, { "symbol": "XOM", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:XOM" }, { "symbol": "CVX", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:CVX" }, { "symbol": "SPY", "market": "US ETF", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Major Indices", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:SPY" }, { "symbol": "QQQ", "market": "US ETF", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Major Indices", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:QQQ" }, { "symbol": "8035", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "東京エレクトロン", "code": "80350", "dedupe_key": "JP:8035" }, { "symbol": "6857", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "アドバンテスト", "code": "68570", "dedupe_key": "JP:6857" }, { "symbol": "6723", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "ルネサスエレクトロニクス", "code": "67230", "dedupe_key": "JP:6723" }, { "symbol": "6920", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "レーザーテック", "code": "69200", "dedupe_key": "JP:6920" }, { "symbol": "8698", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "マネックスグループ", "code": "86980", "dedupe_key": "JP:8698" }, { "symbol": "8473", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "SBIホールディングス", "code": "84730", "dedupe_key": "JP:8473" }, { "symbol": "7203", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "トヨタ自動車", "code": "72030", "dedupe_key": "JP:7203" }, { "symbol": "7267", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "本田技研工業", "code": "72670", "dedupe_key": "JP:7267" }, { "symbol": "6758", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "ソニーグループ", "code": "67580", "dedupe_key": "JP:6758" }, { "symbol": "6902", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "デンソー", "code": "69020", "dedupe_key": "JP:6902" }, { "symbol": "1605", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "INPEX", "code": "16050", "dedupe_key": "JP:1605" }, { "symbol": "5020", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "ENEOSホールディングス", "code": "50200", "dedupe_key": "JP:5020" }, { "symbol": "8058", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "三菱商事", "code": "80580", "dedupe_key": "JP:8058" }, { "symbol": "8001", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "伊藤忠商事", "code": "80010", "dedupe_key": "JP:8001" }, { "symbol": "FLUX", "market": "US", "source": "fmp_event_extra", "reason": "Bounded FMP earnings-calendar extra prequalified by market movers before liquidity/news filtering.", "theme_hint": "Event Calendar", "priority_hint": 125.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Flux Power Holdings, Inc.", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:FLUX" }, { "symbol": "DVLT", "market": "US", "source": "fmp_event_extra", "reason": "Bounded FMP earnings-calendar extra prequalified by market movers before liquidity/news filtering.", "theme_hint": "Event Calendar", "priority_hint": 125.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Datavault AI Inc.", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:DVLT" }, { "symbol": "IPST", "market": "US", "source": "fmp_event_extra", "reason": "Bounded FMP earnings-calendar extra prequalified by market movers before liquidity/news filtering.", "theme_hint": "Event Calendar", "priority_hint": 121.0, "discovered": true, "name": "IP Strategy Holdings, Inc.", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:IPST" }, { "symbol": "9984", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid technology holding company connected to US tech and AI risk tone.", "theme_hint": "Mega-cap Tech / AI", "priority_hint": 96.0, "discovered": true, "name": "SoftBank Group", "code": "99840", "dedupe_key": "JP:9984" }, { "symbol": "9983", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid index-heavy consumer name sensitive to broad Japan risk tone.", "theme_hint": "Consumer / Index Weight", "priority_hint": 94.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Fast Retailing", "code": "99830", "dedupe_key": "JP:9983" }, { "symbol": "6861", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid automation bellwether linked to global capex and semiconductor cycles.", "theme_hint": "Automation / Semiconductor", "priority_hint": 92.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Keyence", "code": "68610", "dedupe_key": "JP:6861" }, { "symbol": "6146", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid semiconductor equipment candidate connected to US chip moves.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 91.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Disco", "code": "61460", "dedupe_key": "JP:6146" }, { "symbol": "7735", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid semiconductor equipment candidate connected to US chip moves.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 90.0, "discovered": true, "name": "SCREEN Holdings", "code": "77350", "dedupe_key": "JP:7735" }, { "symbol": "6981", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid electronics exporter connected to USDJPY and US tech demand.", "theme_hint": "Electronics / Exporters", "priority_hint": 88.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Murata Manufacturing", "code": "69810", "dedupe_key": "JP:6981" }, { "symbol": "6762", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid component maker connected to US tech and currency sensitivity.", "theme_hint": "Electronics / Exporters", "priority_hint": 87.0, "discovered": true, "name": "TDK", "code": "67620", "dedupe_key": "JP:6762" }, { "symbol": "6501", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid industrial technology name connected to global capex tone.", "theme_hint": "Industrial Tech", "priority_hint": 86.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Hitachi", "code": "65010", "dedupe_key": "JP:6501" }, { "symbol": "6503", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid automation and electronics name connected to export and capex themes.", "theme_hint": "Industrial Tech", "priority_hint": 85.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Mitsubishi Electric", "code": "65030", "dedupe_key": "JP:6503" }, { "symbol": "6954", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid factory automation candidate connected to global manufacturing and USDJPY.", "theme_hint": "Automation / Exporters", "priority_hint": 84.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Fanuc", "code": "69540", "dedupe_key": "JP:6954" } ] } }, "lanes": { "change": "Change Feed", "pressure": "Pressure Radar", "event": "Event Radar", "cross_market": "Japan ↔ US Cross-Market Radar", "intraday": "Intraday Radar" }, "run_context": { "generated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "timezone": "Asia/Tokyo", "intended_run_window": "after_us_close_before_tokyo_open", "session_state_basis": "time_window_only_not_exchange_calendar", "us_session_state": "post_close_window", "tokyo_session_state": "pre_open_window", "driver_observation_date": "2026-08-18", "japan_trading_date": "2026-08-18", "jp_confirmation_available": false, "jp_confirmation_basis": "latest_japan_trading_date_precedes_generation_date_or_is_unavailable", "next_check": "Tokyo open" }, "freshness": { "generated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "timezone": "Asia/Tokyo", "next_expected_refresh_at": "2026-08-20T06:20:00+09:00", "refresh_grace_minutes": 90, "schedule_basis": "after_us_close_before_tokyo_open", "stale_after_hours": 24, "expired_after_hours": 72, "status_at_generation": "fresh", "age_hours_at_generation": 0.0, "overdue_minutes_at_generation": 0.0, "freshness_policy": "schedule-aware browser state uses the published next refresh and grace window without rewriting generated_at" }, "market_setup": { "title": "Overnight US → Japan Market Setup", "summary": "US AI → Japan Semiconductor leads the board, but US drivers and Tokyo prior-close alignment are mixed across baskets.", "primary_drivers": [ { "title": "US AI → Japan Semiconductor", "driver_symbols": [ "NVDA", "AMD", "AVGO", "SMH", "SOXX" ], "affected_basket_name": "Japan Semiconductor Equipment", "impact_score": 92 }, { "title": "Energy → Japan Resources / Trading Houses", "driver_symbols": [ "XOM", "CVX" ], "affected_basket_name": "Japan Resources / Trading Houses", "impact_score": 72 }, { "title": "Crypto → Japan Brokers", "driver_symbols": [ "BTCUSD", "ETHUSD", "COIN", "MSTR" ], "affected_basket_name": "Japan Crypto / Brokerage", "impact_score": 66 }, { "title": "USDJPY → Japan Exporters", "driver_symbols": [ "USDJPY", "SPY", "QQQ" ], "affected_basket_name": "Japan Exporters", "impact_score": 55 } ], "top_baskets": [ "Japan Semiconductor Equipment", "Japan Resources / Trading Houses", "Japan Crypto / Brokerage", "Japan Exporters" ], "risk_tone": "mixed", "generated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00" }, "universe": { "mode": "curated_core_with_bounded_discovery", "generated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "curated": { "fmp_symbol_count": 17, "jp_symbol_count": 14, "exposure_theme_count": 4 }, "discovery": { "enabled": true, "lanes": [ "event", "change", "pressure", "intraday" ], "fmp_event_extra_candidates": 1681, "fmp_event_extra_allowed": 1, "fmp_event_extra_selected": 3, "fmp_event_extra_candidates_raw": 1681, "fmp_event_extra_prefiltered": 3, "fmp_event_extra_deep_fetch_selected": 3, "fmp_event_extra_allowed_after_quality": 1, "fmp_event_extra_rejected_after_quality": 2, "fmp_market_discovery_candidates": 50, "fmp_market_discovery_allowed": 0, "fmp_market_discovery_rejected_missing_price": 0, "fmp_market_discovery_rejected_thin_exchange": 0, "fmp_market_discovery_rejected_low_dollar_volume": 50, "fmp_market_discovery_rejected_low_move": 0, "fmp_market_discovery_rejected_duplicate_or_curated": 0, "jp_discovery_candidates": 60, "jp_discovery_allowed": 10, "raw_candidate_count": 1822, "allowed_candidate_count": 44, "discovered_candidate_count": 13, "skipped_reasons": [], "discovered_signal_count": 8, "fmp_event_extra_signal_count": 3 }, "request_budget": { "max_fmp_quote_symbols": 50, "max_fmp_event_extra_symbols": 18, "max_fmp_market_discovery_raw": 50, "max_fmp_market_discovery_symbols": 15, "max_jp_deep_symbols": 40, "max_jp_discovery_symbols": 10, "max_total_external_requests_estimate": 280, "cache_ttl_minutes_quote": 15, "cache_ttl_minutes_news": 30, "cache_ttl_minutes_market_movers": 15, "cache_ttl_hours_calendar": 6, "cache_ttl_hours_historical_eod": 24, "cache_ttl_hours_master_listed": 24, "cache_ttl_hours_jq_daily_bars": 6 }, "request_estimate": 169, "candidates": [ { "symbol": "NVDA", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:NVDA" }, { "symbol": "AMD", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:AMD" }, { "symbol": "AVGO", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:AVGO" }, { "symbol": "SMH", "market": "US ETF", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:SMH" }, { "symbol": "SOXX", "market": "US ETF", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:SOXX" }, { "symbol": "AAPL", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Mega-cap Tech", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:AAPL" }, { "symbol": "MSFT", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Mega-cap Tech", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:MSFT" }, { "symbol": "TSLA", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Auto / Growth", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:TSLA" }, { "symbol": "COIN", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:COIN" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:MSTR" }, { "symbol": "BTCUSD", "market": "Crypto", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:BTCUSD" }, { "symbol": "ETHUSD", "market": "Crypto", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:ETHUSD" }, { "symbol": "USDJPY", "market": "FX", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:USDJPY" }, { "symbol": "XOM", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:XOM" }, { "symbol": "CVX", "market": "US", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:CVX" }, { "symbol": "SPY", "market": "US ETF", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Major Indices", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:SPY" }, { "symbol": "QQQ", "market": "US ETF", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Major Indices", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:QQQ" }, { "symbol": "8035", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "東京エレクトロン", "code": "80350", "dedupe_key": "JP:8035" }, { "symbol": "6857", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "アドバンテスト", "code": "68570", "dedupe_key": "JP:6857" }, { "symbol": "6723", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "ルネサスエレクトロニクス", "code": "67230", "dedupe_key": "JP:6723" }, { "symbol": "6920", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "レーザーテック", "code": "69200", "dedupe_key": "JP:6920" }, { "symbol": "8698", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "マネックスグループ", "code": "86980", "dedupe_key": "JP:8698" }, { "symbol": "8473", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "SBIホールディングス", "code": "84730", "dedupe_key": "JP:8473" }, { "symbol": "7203", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "トヨタ自動車", "code": "72030", "dedupe_key": "JP:7203" }, { "symbol": "7267", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "本田技研工業", "code": "72670", "dedupe_key": "JP:7267" }, { "symbol": "6758", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "ソニーグループ", "code": "67580", "dedupe_key": "JP:6758" }, { "symbol": "6902", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "デンソー", "code": "69020", "dedupe_key": "JP:6902" }, { "symbol": "1605", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "INPEX", "code": "16050", "dedupe_key": "JP:1605" }, { "symbol": "5020", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "ENEOSホールディングス", "code": "50200", "dedupe_key": "JP:5020" }, { "symbol": "8058", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "三菱商事", "code": "80580", "dedupe_key": "JP:8058" }, { "symbol": "8001", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "伊藤忠商事", "code": "80010", "dedupe_key": "JP:8001" }, { "symbol": "FLUX", "market": "US", "source": "fmp_event_extra", "reason": "Bounded FMP earnings-calendar extra prequalified by market movers before liquidity/news filtering.", "theme_hint": "Event Calendar", "priority_hint": 125.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Flux Power Holdings, Inc.", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:FLUX" }, { "symbol": "DVLT", "market": "US", "source": "fmp_event_extra", "reason": "Bounded FMP earnings-calendar extra prequalified by market movers before liquidity/news filtering.", "theme_hint": "Event Calendar", "priority_hint": 125.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Datavault AI Inc.", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:DVLT" }, { "symbol": "IPST", "market": "US", "source": "fmp_event_extra", "reason": "Bounded FMP earnings-calendar extra prequalified by market movers before liquidity/news filtering.", "theme_hint": "Event Calendar", "priority_hint": 121.0, "discovered": true, "name": "IP Strategy Holdings, Inc.", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:IPST" }, { "symbol": "9984", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid technology holding company connected to US tech and AI risk tone.", "theme_hint": "Mega-cap Tech / AI", "priority_hint": 96.0, "discovered": true, "name": "SoftBank Group", "code": "99840", "dedupe_key": "JP:9984" }, { "symbol": "9983", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid index-heavy consumer name sensitive to broad Japan risk tone.", "theme_hint": "Consumer / Index Weight", "priority_hint": 94.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Fast Retailing", "code": "99830", "dedupe_key": "JP:9983" }, { "symbol": "6861", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid automation bellwether linked to global capex and semiconductor cycles.", "theme_hint": "Automation / Semiconductor", "priority_hint": 92.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Keyence", "code": "68610", "dedupe_key": "JP:6861" }, { "symbol": "6146", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid semiconductor equipment candidate connected to US chip moves.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 91.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Disco", "code": "61460", "dedupe_key": "JP:6146" }, { "symbol": "7735", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid semiconductor equipment candidate connected to US chip moves.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 90.0, "discovered": true, "name": "SCREEN Holdings", "code": "77350", "dedupe_key": "JP:7735" }, { "symbol": "6981", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid electronics exporter connected to USDJPY and US tech demand.", "theme_hint": "Electronics / Exporters", "priority_hint": 88.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Murata Manufacturing", "code": "69810", "dedupe_key": "JP:6981" }, { "symbol": "6762", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid component maker connected to US tech and currency sensitivity.", "theme_hint": "Electronics / Exporters", "priority_hint": 87.0, "discovered": true, "name": "TDK", "code": "67620", "dedupe_key": "JP:6762" }, { "symbol": "6501", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid industrial technology name connected to global capex tone.", "theme_hint": "Industrial Tech", "priority_hint": 86.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Hitachi", "code": "65010", "dedupe_key": "JP:6501" }, { "symbol": "6503", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid automation and electronics name connected to export and capex themes.", "theme_hint": "Industrial Tech", "priority_hint": 85.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Mitsubishi Electric", "code": "65030", "dedupe_key": "JP:6503" }, { "symbol": "6954", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid factory automation candidate connected to global manufacturing and USDJPY.", "theme_hint": "Automation / Exporters", "priority_hint": 84.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Fanuc", "code": "69540", "dedupe_key": "JP:6954" } ] }, "tactical_summary": { "primary_theme": "Semiconductor", "theme_id": "semiconductor", "signal_id": "cross-us_ai_japan_semiconductor", "primary_impact_theme": { "signal_id": "cross-us_ai_japan_semiconductor", "theme_id": "semiconductor", "theme_label": "Semiconductor", "impact_score": 92, "priority_score": 0.89, "actionability_score": 0.82, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "reviewability_score": 0.82, "divergence": "Aligned", "follow_fade_bias": "Provisional follow", "scenario_bias": "Provisional follow", "confidence": 0.74, "confidence_label": "Medium-High", "pre_open_watch": [ "SOX/NVDA", "Nikkei futures", "USDJPY", "JP basket dispersion" ], "watch_reason": "Semiconductor breadth needs a Tokyo opening check despite aligned overseas input." }, "primary_watch_theme": { "signal_id": "cross-usdjpy_japan_exporters", "theme_id": "exporters", "theme_label": "Exporters", "impact_score": 55, "priority_score": 0.58, "actionability_score": 0.32, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "reviewability_score": 0.32, "divergence": "Mixed", "follow_fade_bias": "Opening check required", "scenario_bias": "Opening check required", "confidence": 0.46, "confidence_label": "Medium", "pre_open_watch": [ "USDJPY", "US index futures", "Nikkei futures", "US peer stocks" ], "watch_reason": "Exporter participation is split while FX and US index tone are active." }, "headline": "Primary impact is Semiconductor; Exporters is the highest watch-risk theme.", "body": "Semiconductor is the main impact theme: US drivers and Tokyo prior-close direction are aligned enough to monitor follow-through. Exporters is the highest watch-risk theme because exporter participation is split while FX and US index tone are active.", "watchline": "Watch before open: SOX/NVDA, Nikkei futures, USDJPY, US index futures.", "divergence": "Aligned", "follow_fade_bias": "Provisional follow", "scenario_bias": "Provisional follow", "confidence": 0.74, "confidence_label": "Medium-High" }, "theme_priority_ranking": [ { "rank": 1, "signal_id": "cross-us_ai_japan_semiconductor", "theme_id": "semiconductor", "theme_label": "Semiconductor", "priority_score": 0.89, "actionability_score": 0.82, "reviewability_score": 0.82, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "divergence": "Aligned", "follow_fade_bias": "Provisional follow", "scenario_bias": "Provisional follow", "confidence": 0.74, "confidence_label": "Medium-High", "pre_open_watch": [ "SOX/NVDA", "Nikkei futures", "USDJPY", "JP basket dispersion" ], "leader_laggard": { "leaders": [ { "code": "8035", "name": "東京エレクトロン", "score": 1.0, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Semiconductor Equipment basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "6723", "name": "ルネサスエレクトロニクス", "score": 0.71, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "note": "" }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": true, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": true }, "is_primary_impact": true, "is_primary_watch": false }, { "rank": 2, "signal_id": "cross-energy_japan_resources_trading_houses", "theme_id": "energy", "theme_label": "Energy / Trading Houses", "priority_score": 0.86, "actionability_score": 0.78, "reviewability_score": 0.78, "watch_priority_score": 0.56, "divergence": "Aligned", "follow_fade_bias": "Provisional follow", "scenario_bias": "Provisional follow", "confidence": 0.74, "confidence_label": "Medium-High", "pre_open_watch": [ "WTI", "XOM/CVX", "USDJPY", "Trading company reaction" ], "leader_laggard": { "leaders": [ { "code": "1605", "name": "ＩＮＰＥＸ", "score": 0.91, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Resources / Trading Houses basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "8001", "name": "伊藤忠商事", "score": 0.56, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "note": "" }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false }, "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false }, { "rank": 3, "signal_id": "cross-usdjpy_japan_exporters", "theme_id": "exporters", "theme_label": "Exporters", "priority_score": 0.58, "actionability_score": 0.32, "reviewability_score": 0.32, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "divergence": "Mixed", "follow_fade_bias": "Opening check required", "scenario_bias": "Opening check required", "confidence": 0.46, "confidence_label": "Medium", "pre_open_watch": [ "USDJPY", "US index futures", "Nikkei futures", "US peer stocks" ], "leader_laggard": { "leaders": [ { "code": "6758", "name": "ソニーグループ", "score": 0.71, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Exporters basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "7267", "name": "本田技研工業", "score": 0.31, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "note": "" }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": true, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false }, "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": true }, { "rank": 4, "signal_id": "cross-crypto_japan_brokers", "theme_id": "crypto", "theme_label": "Crypto / Brokerage", "priority_score": 0.48, "actionability_score": 0.42, "reviewability_score": 0.42, "watch_priority_score": 0.46, "divergence": "Resilient", "follow_fade_bias": "Local-only / fragile", "scenario_bias": "Local-only / fragile", "confidence": 0.31, "confidence_label": "Low-Medium", "pre_open_watch": [ "BTC", "ETH", "COIN/MSTR", "USDJPY" ], "leader_laggard": { "leaders": [ { "code": "8473", "name": "ＳＢＩホールディングス", "score": 0.48, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Crypto / Brokerage basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "8698", "name": "マネックスグループ", "score": 0.37, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "note": "" }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false }, "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false } ], "methodology": { "version": "tactical-layer-v1.1", "llm_used": false, "summary_generation": "deterministic_template", "score_policy": "uncalibrated_heuristic", "score_explanation": "Scores are deterministic, uncalibrated heuristics for ranking attention, not backtested probabilities.", "generated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00" }, "signals": [ { "lane": "cross_market", "symbol": "US AI → Japan Semiconductor", "name": "US AI → Japan Semiconductor", "market": "US / JP", "signal_type": "Cross-Market Impact", "score": 92, "primary_change": "Japan Semiconductor Equipment is the Japan basket to watch from US AI: US driver -3.8% vs JP basket -4.7%.", "evidence": [ "Driver summary: US AI driver negative (-3.8% avg, 3.8% avg abs)", "Japan basket: Japan Semiconductor Equipment negative (-4.7% avg, 0.8x avg volume)", "Impact score: 92", "Heuristic rank: 74/100", "US direction: negative", "JP direction: negative", "JP average volume: 0.8x", "Tokyo alignment state: Directionally aligned, volume not yet validated; strength moderate", "Top driver moves: SOXX -5.0%, AMD -4.3%", "JP volume check: 6723 0.8x vol, 8035 0.8x vol", "Score parts: driver 30, catalyst 18, basket 18, Japan 20, gap 6, stale -0" ], "sources": [ "FMP", "J-Quants" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "cross_market_impact", "trigger_strength": "moderate", "market_date": "2026-08-19", "market_date_basis": "radar_generation_date", "session": "cross_market", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "cross-us_ai_japan_semiconductor", "driver_market": "US", "driver_symbols": [ "NVDA", "AMD", "AVGO", "SMH", "SOXX" ], "driver_event_type": "ai_semiconductor", "driver_observation_date": "2026-08-18", "driver_as_of": "2026-08-18", "affected_market": "JP", "affected_symbols": [ "8035", "6857", "6723", "6920" ], "affected_basket_name": "Japan Semiconductor Equipment", "japan_trading_date": "2026-08-18", "japan_as_of": "2026-08-18", "alignment_window": { "basis": "latest_available_source_observation_dates", "driver_observation_date": "2026-08-18", "japan_trading_date": "2026-08-18", "calendar_day_gap": 0, "relationship": "same_calendar_date" }, "impact_score": 92, "confidence": 0.74, "why_it_matters": "US semiconductor leadership can set the first read for Tokyo semiconductor equipment. The useful signal is whether Tokyo open breadth and volume extend the overseas move.", "next_check": [ "US semiconductor basket continuation", "Tokyo open volume", "8035/6857 first-hour volume check" ], "invalid_if": [ "US semiconductor basket reverses", "Japan semiconductor basket lacks volume-backed follow-through" ], "source_freshness": { "fmp": "quote snapshot through 2026-08-18; news 36 in 24h / 50 in 7d", "jquants": "daily bars through 2026-08-18" }, "api_sources": [ "FMP quote", "FMP historical_eod", "FMP stock_news", "J-Quants daily_bars", "J-Quants listed_info" ], "universe_source": "exposure_map", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated cross-market exposure theme.", "tactical": { "theme_id": "semiconductor", "theme_label": "Semiconductor", "priority_rank": 1, "priority_score": 0.89, "actionability_score": 0.82, "reviewability_score": 0.82, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "is_primary_theme": true, "us_catalyst": { "label": "SOX/NVDA strength", "direction": "negative", "strength": 0.96, "evidence": [ "SOXX", "AMD", "SMH", "AVGO" ] }, "jp_basket_state": { "label": "prior close aligned", "reaction_score": 0.86, "dispersion": 0.44, "state": "prior_close_aligned" }, "divergence": { "label": "Aligned", "score": 0.6, "expected_direction": "negative", "actual_reaction": "prior-close aligned", "reason": "US catalyst and Japan basket direction are aligned." }, "confidence": { "score": 0.74, "label": "Medium-High", "components": { "us_signal_strength": 0.96, "jp_basket_fit": 0.92, "recent_reaction_alignment": 0.64, "freshness": 0.86, "liquidity_or_basket_quality": 0.75, "us_driver_agreement": 1.0, "jp_basket_breadth": 1.0, "directional_cleanliness": 0.9, "dispersion_penalty": -0.1, "regime_penalty": 0.0, "missing_data_penalty": -0.0, "basket_size_penalty": -0.0, "driver_dispersion_penalty": -0.04 }, "explanation": "US signal high / JP fit high / driver agreement high / breadth high / freshness high. Basket dispersion reduces signal quality." }, "follow_fade_bias": { "label": "Provisional follow", "score": 0.6, "reason": "The theme is directionally aligned, but breadth and volume quality are still partial." }, "scenario_bias": { "label": "Provisional follow", "score": 0.6, "reason": "The theme is directionally aligned, but breadth and volume quality are still partial." }, "pre_open_watch": [ { "factor": "SOX/NVDA", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "US semiconductor proxies lose overnight strength", "reason": "SOX/NVDA is a pre-open check for Semiconductor quality." }, { "factor": "Nikkei futures", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Futures fail to follow US semiconductor strength", "reason": "Nikkei futures is a pre-open check for Semiconductor quality." }, { "factor": "USDJPY", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "JPY strengthens against the tech/export setup", "reason": "USDJPY is a pre-open check for Semiconductor quality." }, { "factor": "JP basket dispersion", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "8035/6857/6920 do not move in the same direction", "reason": "JP basket dispersion is a pre-open check for Semiconductor quality." } ], "leaders": [ { "code": "8035", "name": "東京エレクトロン", "score": 1.0, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Semiconductor Equipment basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "6723", "name": "ルネサスエレクトロニクス", "score": 0.71, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "leader_laggard_note": "", "summary": { "headline": "Semiconductor is the primary tactical theme today.", "body": "Overseas input: SOX/NVDA strength. Tokyo prior-close move in the Japan Semiconductor Equipment basket is prior close aligned. Divergence is Aligned; scenario is Provisional follow.", "watchline": "Watch before open: SOX/NVDA, Nikkei futures, USDJPY, JP basket dispersion." }, "source": { "llm_used": false, "summary_generation": "deterministic_template", "us_avg_move": -3.77, "jp_avg_move": -4.67, "jp_avg_volume": 0.78 }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": true, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": true } } }, { "lane": "cross_market", "symbol": "Energy → Japan Resources / Trading Houses", "name": "Energy → Japan Resources / Trading Houses", "market": "US / JP", "signal_type": "Cross-Market Impact", "score": 72, "primary_change": "Japan Resources / Trading Houses is the Japan basket to watch from Energy: US driver +2.0% vs JP basket +1.8%.", "evidence": [ "Driver summary: Energy driver positive (+2.0% avg, 2.0% avg abs)", "Japan basket: Japan Resources / Trading Houses positive (+1.8% avg, 0.8x avg volume)", "Impact score: 72", "Heuristic rank: 74/100", "US direction: positive", "JP direction: positive", "JP average volume: 0.8x", "Tokyo alignment state: Directionally aligned, volume not yet validated; strength moderate", "Top driver moves: XOM +2.6%, CVX +1.5%", "JP volume check: 1605 1.0x vol, 5020 0.8x vol", "Score parts: driver 17, catalyst 18, basket 18, Japan 15, gap 4, stale -0" ], "sources": [ "FMP", "J-Quants" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "cross_market_impact", "trigger_strength": "moderate", "market_date": "2026-08-19", "market_date_basis": "radar_generation_date", "session": "cross_market", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "cross-energy_japan_resources_trading_houses", "driver_market": "US Energy", "driver_symbols": [ "XOM", "CVX" ], "driver_event_type": "energy_commodity", "driver_observation_date": "2026-08-18", "driver_as_of": "2026-08-18", "affected_market": "JP", "affected_symbols": [ "1605", "5020", "8058", "8001" ], "affected_basket_name": "Japan Resources / Trading Houses", "japan_trading_date": "2026-08-18", "japan_as_of": "2026-08-18", "alignment_window": { "basis": "latest_available_source_observation_dates", "driver_observation_date": "2026-08-18", "japan_trading_date": "2026-08-18", "calendar_day_gap": 0, "relationship": "same_calendar_date" }, "impact_score": 72, "confidence": 0.74, "why_it_matters": "Energy majors frame the first read for Japanese resource and trading-house sensitivity, with a separate cost-pressure read for import-heavy names.", "next_check": [ "XOM/CVX continuation", "resource and trading-house basket reaction", "cost-pressure split between resource and import-cost names" ], "invalid_if": [ "energy move fades", "Japan resource basket does not align" ], "source_freshness": { "fmp": "quote snapshot through 2026-08-18; news 11 in 24h / 24 in 7d", "jquants": "daily bars through 2026-08-18" }, "api_sources": [ "FMP quote", "FMP historical_eod", "FMP stock_news", "J-Quants daily_bars", "J-Quants listed_info" ], "universe_source": "exposure_map", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated cross-market exposure theme.", "tactical": { "theme_id": "energy", "theme_label": "Energy / Trading Houses", "priority_rank": 2, "priority_score": 0.86, "actionability_score": 0.78, "reviewability_score": 0.78, "watch_priority_score": 0.56, "is_primary_theme": false, "us_catalyst": { "label": "US energy majors", "direction": "positive", "strength": 0.68, "evidence": [ "XOM", "CVX" ] }, "jp_basket_state": { "label": "prior close aligned", "reaction_score": 0.82, "dispersion": 0.26, "state": "prior_close_aligned" }, "divergence": { "label": "Aligned", "score": 0.62, "expected_direction": "positive", "actual_reaction": "prior-close aligned", "reason": "US catalyst and Japan basket direction are aligned." }, "confidence": { "score": 0.74, "label": "Medium-High", "components": { "us_signal_strength": 0.68, "jp_basket_fit": 0.92, "recent_reaction_alignment": 0.64, "freshness": 0.86, "liquidity_or_basket_quality": 0.75, "us_driver_agreement": 1.0, "jp_basket_breadth": 1.0, "directional_cleanliness": 0.9, "dispersion_penalty": -0.06, "regime_penalty": 0.0, "missing_data_penalty": -0.0, "basket_size_penalty": -0.0, "driver_dispersion_penalty": -0.02 }, "explanation": "US signal medium-high / JP fit high / driver agreement high / breadth high / freshness high." }, "follow_fade_bias": { "label": "Provisional follow", "score": 0.6, "reason": "The theme is directionally aligned, but breadth and volume quality are still partial." }, "scenario_bias": { "label": "Provisional follow", "score": 0.6, "reason": "The theme is directionally aligned, but breadth and volume quality are still partial." }, "pre_open_watch": [ { "factor": "WTI", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Oil diverges from the energy-major move", "reason": "WTI is a pre-open check for Energy / Trading Houses quality." }, { "factor": "XOM/CVX", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "US energy majors split direction", "reason": "XOM/CVX is a pre-open check for Energy / Trading Houses quality." }, { "factor": "USDJPY", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "FX move offsets resource sensitivity", "reason": "USDJPY is a pre-open check for Energy / Trading Houses quality." }, { "factor": "Trading company reaction", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "8058/8001 do not participate together", "reason": "Trading company reaction is a pre-open check for Energy / Trading Houses quality." } ], "leaders": [ { "code": "1605", "name": "ＩＮＰＥＸ", "score": 0.91, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Resources / Trading Houses basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "8001", "name": "伊藤忠商事", "score": 0.56, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "leader_laggard_note": "", "summary": { "headline": "Energy / Trading Houses is a tactical theme to monitor today.", "body": "Overseas input: US energy majors. Tokyo prior-close move in the Japan Resources / Trading Houses basket is prior close aligned. Divergence is Aligned; scenario is Provisional follow.", "watchline": "Watch before open: WTI, XOM/CVX, USDJPY, Trading company reaction." }, "source": { "llm_used": false, "summary_generation": "deterministic_template", "us_avg_move": 2.04, "jp_avg_move": 1.77, "jp_avg_volume": 0.78 }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false } } }, { "lane": "cross_market", "symbol": "Crypto → Japan Brokers", "name": "Crypto → Japan Brokers", "market": "US / JP", "signal_type": "Cross-Market Impact", "score": 66, "primary_change": "Japan Crypto / Brokerage is the Japan basket to watch from Crypto: US driver -2.0% vs JP basket +0.6%.", "evidence": [ "Driver summary: Crypto driver negative (-2.0% avg, 2.1% avg abs)", "Japan basket: Japan Crypto / Brokerage positive (+0.6% avg, 0.5x avg volume)", "Impact score: 66", "Heuristic rank: 31/100", "US direction: negative", "JP direction: positive", "JP average volume: 0.5x", "Tokyo alignment state: Divergence watch; strength moderate", "Top driver moves: MSTR -5.3%, COIN -2.9%", "JP volume check: 8698 0.6x vol, 8473 0.5x vol", "Score parts: driver 23, catalyst 18, basket 18, Japan 3, gap 4, stale -0" ], "sources": [ "FMP", "J-Quants" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "cross_market_impact", "trigger_strength": "moderate", "market_date": "2026-08-19", "market_date_basis": "radar_generation_date", "session": "cross_market", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "cross-crypto_japan_brokers", "driver_market": "Crypto / US", "driver_symbols": [ "BTCUSD", "ETHUSD", "COIN", "MSTR" ], "driver_event_type": "crypto_risk", "driver_observation_date": "2026-08-18", "driver_as_of": "2026-08-18", "affected_market": "JP", "affected_symbols": [ "8698", "8473" ], "affected_basket_name": "Japan Crypto / Brokerage", "japan_trading_date": "2026-08-18", "japan_as_of": "2026-08-18", "alignment_window": { "basis": "latest_available_source_observation_dates", "driver_observation_date": "2026-08-18", "japan_trading_date": "2026-08-18", "calendar_day_gap": 0, "relationship": "same_calendar_date" }, "impact_score": 66, "confidence": 0.31, "why_it_matters": "Crypto and crypto-linked US equities can translate into risk appetite for Japanese brokerage and online financial names. The cleanest read needs spot crypto and listed proxies to move together.", "next_check": [ "BTC/ETH continuation", "COIN/MSTR listed-proxy check", "8698/8473 volume reaction" ], "invalid_if": [ "BTC moves alone without COIN/MSTR listed-proxy alignment", "JP financial names do not react" ], "source_freshness": { "fmp": "quote snapshot through 2026-08-18; news 28 in 24h / 43 in 7d", "jquants": "daily bars through 2026-08-18" }, "api_sources": [ "FMP quote", "FMP historical_eod", "FMP stock_news", "J-Quants daily_bars", "J-Quants listed_info" ], "universe_source": "exposure_map", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated cross-market exposure theme.", "tactical": { "theme_id": "crypto", "theme_label": "Crypto / Brokerage", "priority_rank": 4, "priority_score": 0.48, "actionability_score": 0.42, "reviewability_score": 0.42, "watch_priority_score": 0.46, "is_primary_theme": false, "us_catalyst": { "label": "BTC/ETH and listed crypto proxies", "direction": "negative", "strength": 0.61, "evidence": [ "MSTR", "COIN", "BTCUSD", "ETHUSD" ] }, "jp_basket_state": { "label": "resilient", "reaction_score": 0.55, "dispersion": 0.11, "state": "resilient" }, "divergence": { "label": "Resilient", "score": 0.57, "expected_direction": "negative", "actual_reaction": "holding up", "reason": "US catalyst is negative, but the Japan basket is not aligned with weakness." }, "confidence": { "score": 0.31, "label": "Low-Medium", "components": { "us_signal_strength": 0.61, "jp_basket_fit": 0.67, "recent_reaction_alignment": 0.25, "freshness": 0.86, "liquidity_or_basket_quality": 0.7, "us_driver_agreement": 0.68, "jp_basket_breadth": 0.25, "directional_cleanliness": 0.18, "dispersion_penalty": -0.02, "regime_penalty": 0.0, "missing_data_penalty": -0.0, "basket_size_penalty": -0.1, "driver_dispersion_penalty": -0.1 }, "explanation": "US signal medium-high / JP fit medium-high / driver agreement medium-high / breadth low / freshness high." }, "follow_fade_bias": { "label": "Local-only / fragile", "score": 0.46, "reason": "Japan basket resilience is visible, but the overseas driver is not supportive." }, "scenario_bias": { "label": "Local-only / fragile", "score": 0.46, "reason": "Japan basket resilience is visible, but the overseas driver is not supportive." }, "pre_open_watch": [ { "factor": "BTC", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Spot crypto direction splits or reverses", "reason": "BTC is a pre-open check for Crypto / Brokerage quality." }, { "factor": "ETH", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Spot crypto direction splits or reverses", "reason": "ETH is a pre-open check for Crypto / Brokerage quality." }, { "factor": "COIN/MSTR", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Listed crypto proxies diverge from spot crypto", "reason": "COIN/MSTR is a pre-open check for Crypto / Brokerage quality." }, { "factor": "USDJPY", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "FX move weakens risk appetite", "reason": "USDJPY is a pre-open check for Crypto / Brokerage quality." }, { "factor": "JP crypto basket reaction", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "8698 and 8473 do not participate together", "reason": "JP crypto basket reaction is a pre-open check for Crypto / Brokerage quality." } ], "leaders": [ { "code": "8473", "name": "ＳＢＩホールディングス", "score": 0.48, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Crypto / Brokerage basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "8698", "name": "マネックスグループ", "score": 0.37, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "leader_laggard_note": "", "summary": { "headline": "Crypto / Brokerage is a tactical theme to monitor today.", "body": "Overseas input: BTC/ETH and listed crypto proxies. Tokyo prior-close move in the Japan Crypto / Brokerage basket is resilient. Divergence is Resilient; scenario is Local-only / fragile.", "watchline": "Watch before open: BTC, ETH, COIN/MSTR, USDJPY." }, "source": { "llm_used": false, "summary_generation": "deterministic_template", "us_avg_move": -2.03, "jp_avg_move": 0.59, "jp_avg_volume": 0.55 }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false } } }, { "lane": "pressure", "symbol": "6981", "name": "村田製作所", "market": "JP", "signal_type": "Supply-Demand Pressure", "score": 70, "primary_change": "Volume 1.1x with price -9.6%", "evidence": [ "Volume: 1.1x vs 20d avg", "Volume and price moved together", "Margin rows: 20", "Latest margin date: 2026-08-14", "Margin balance direction: rising", "Margin long/short volume ratio: 9.21x", "Sector: 電気機器", "Market segment: プライム" ], "sources": [ "J-Quants" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "jp_turnover_watch", "trigger_strength": "moderate", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "jp_close", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "fallback_seed", "discovered": true, "discovery_reason": "Liquid electronics exporter connected to USDJPY and US tech demand.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "pressure", "symbol": "8035", "name": "東京エレクトロン", "market": "JP", "signal_type": "Supply-Demand Pressure", "score": 58, "primary_change": "Volume 0.8x with price -6.2%", "evidence": [ "Volume: 0.8x vs 20d avg", "Volume and price moved together", "Margin rows: 20", "Latest margin date: 2026-08-14", "Margin balance direction: rising", "Margin long/short volume ratio: 13.44x", "Sector: 電気機器", "Market segment: プライム" ], "sources": [ "J-Quants" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "jp_turnover_watch", "trigger_strength": "moderate", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "jp_close", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "pressure", "symbol": "6920", "name": "レーザーテック", "market": "JP", "signal_type": "Supply-Demand Pressure", "score": 55, "primary_change": "Volume 0.7x with price -5.7%", "evidence": [ "Volume: 0.7x vs 20d avg", "Volume and price moved together", "Margin rows: 20", "Latest margin date: 2026-08-14", "Margin balance direction: rising", "Margin long/short volume ratio: 5.37x", "Sector: 電気機器", "Market segment: プライム" ], "sources": [ "J-Quants" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "jp_turnover_watch", "trigger_strength": "watch", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "jp_close", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "pressure", "symbol": "6857", "name": "アドバンテスト", "market": "JP", "signal_type": "Supply-Demand Pressure", "score": 52, "primary_change": "Volume 0.7x with price -5.1%", "evidence": [ "Volume: 0.7x vs 20d avg", "Volume and price moved together", "Margin rows: 20", "Latest margin date: 2026-08-14", "Margin balance direction: rising", "Margin long/short volume ratio: 0.92x", "Sector: 電気機器", "Market segment: プライム" ], "sources": [ "J-Quants" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "jp_turnover_watch", "trigger_strength": "watch", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "jp_close", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "pressure", "symbol": "9984", "name": "ソフトバンクグループ", "market": "JP", "signal_type": "Supply-Demand Pressure", "score": 46, "primary_change": "Volume 1.2x with price -1.0%", "evidence": [ "Volume: 1.2x vs 20d avg", "Volume and price moved together", "Margin rows: 20", "Latest margin date: 2026-08-14", "Margin balance direction: flat", "Margin long/short volume ratio: 9.08x", "Sector: 情報･通信業", "Market segment: プライム" ], "sources": [ "J-Quants" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "jp_turnover_watch", "trigger_strength": "watch", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "jp_close", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "fallback_seed", "discovered": true, "discovery_reason": "Liquid technology holding company connected to US tech and AI risk tone.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "event", "symbol": "NVDA", "name": "NVIDIA Corporation", "market": "US", "signal_type": "Earnings Watch", "score": 84, "primary_change": "Earnings calendar in 7 calendar days", "evidence": [ "Event date: 2026-08-26", "Event freshness: Upcoming Event", "Days until event: 7", "Volume: 0.9x vs 20d avg", "News count: 12 in 7d", "Liquidity: High", "Exchange: NASDAQ" ], "sources": [ "FMP" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "earnings_watch", "trigger_strength": "strong", "market_date": "2026-08-26", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "us_regular", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "intraday", "symbol": "AMD", "name": "Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.", "market": "US", "signal_type": "Intraday Radar", "score": 55, "primary_change": "Relative volume 0.8x / gap -3.6%", "evidence": [ "Relative Volume: 0.8x", "Gap: -3.6%", "Price change: -4.3%", "Catalyst: News within 24h", "Liquidity: High", "Sector Heat: Semiconductor / AI" ], "sources": [ "FMP" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "gap_watch", "trigger_strength": "watch", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "us_regular", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "change", "symbol": "IPST", "name": "IP Strategy Holdings, Inc.", "market": "US", "signal_type": "Daily Change", "score": 98, "primary_change": "Price +113.3% / volume 6.3x vs recent avg", "evidence": [ "Price change: +113.3%", "Volume: 6.3x vs 20d avg", "News freshness: 0 in 24h / 0 in 7d", "Exchange: NASDAQ" ], "sources": [ "FMP" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "volume_spike", "trigger_strength": "strong", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "us_regular", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "fmp_event_extra", "discovered": true, "discovery_reason": "Bounded FMP earnings-calendar extra prequalified by market movers before liquidity/news filtering.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "change", "symbol": "AVGO", "name": "Broadcom Inc.", "market": "US", "signal_type": "Daily Change", "score": 73, "primary_change": "Price -3.2% / volume 1.3x vs recent avg", "evidence": [ "Price change: -3.2%", "Volume: 1.3x vs 20d avg", "News freshness: 9 in 24h / 12 in 7d", "Exchange: NASDAQ" ], "sources": [ "FMP" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "price_move", "trigger_strength": "moderate", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "us_regular", "is_top_candidate": true, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "event", "symbol": "IPST", "name": "IP Strategy Holdings, Inc.", "market": "US", "signal_type": "Earnings Watch", "score": 98, "primary_change": "Earnings calendar in 14 calendar days", "evidence": [ "Event date: 2026-09-02", "Event freshness: Upcoming Event", "Days until event: 14", "Volume: 6.3x vs 20d avg", "News count: 0 in 7d", "Liquidity: Moderate", "Exchange: NASDAQ" ], "sources": [ "FMP" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": 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], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "price_move", "trigger_strength": "moderate", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "us_regular", "is_top_candidate": false, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "change", "symbol": "AAPL", "name": "Apple Inc.", "market": "US", "signal_type": "Daily Change", "score": 63, "primary_change": "Price +1.5% / volume 0.9x vs recent avg", "evidence": [ "Price change: +1.5%", "Volume: 0.9x vs 20d avg", "News freshness: 12 in 24h / 12 in 7d", "Exchange: NASDAQ" ], "sources": [ "FMP" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "daily_change", "trigger_strength": "moderate", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "us_regular", "is_top_candidate": false, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "cross_market", "symbol": "USDJPY → Japan Exporters", "name": "USDJPY → Japan Exporters", "market": "US / JP", "signal_type": "Cross-Market Watch", "score": 55, "primary_change": "Japan Exporters is the Japan basket to watch from USDJPY: US driver -0.8% vs JP basket +0.2%.", "evidence": [ "Driver summary: USDJPY driver negative (-0.8% avg, 0.8% avg abs)", "Japan basket: Japan Exporters mixed (+0.2% avg, 0.7x avg volume)", "Impact score: 55", "Heuristic rank: 46/100", "US direction: negative", "JP direction: mixed", "JP average volume: 0.7x", "Tokyo alignment state: Mixed Tokyo prior-close move; strength watch", "Top driver moves: QQQ -1.7%, SPY -0.7%", "JP volume check: 7267 0.9x vol, 6902 0.7x vol", "Score parts: driver 8, catalyst 18, basket 18, Japan 5, gap 6, stale -0" ], "sources": [ "FMP", "J-Quants" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "cross_market_watch", "trigger_strength": "watch", "market_date": "2026-08-19", "market_date_basis": "radar_generation_date", "session": "cross_market", "is_top_candidate": false, "signal_id": "cross-usdjpy_japan_exporters", "driver_market": "FX / US", "driver_symbols": [ "USDJPY", "SPY", "QQQ" ], "driver_event_type": "fx_exporter", "driver_observation_date": "2026-08-18", "driver_as_of": "2026-08-18", "affected_market": "JP", "affected_symbols": [ "7203", "7267", "6758", "6902" ], "affected_basket_name": "Japan Exporters", "japan_trading_date": "2026-08-18", "japan_as_of": "2026-08-18", "alignment_window": { "basis": "latest_available_source_observation_dates", "driver_observation_date": "2026-08-18", "japan_trading_date": "2026-08-18", "calendar_day_gap": 0, "relationship": "same_calendar_date" }, "impact_score": 55, "confidence": 0.46, "why_it_matters": "USDJPY and US index tone shape the opening setup for Japanese exporters. A stronger signal needs exporter basket direction rather than FX alone.", "next_check": [ "USDJPY direction", "export basket open reaction", "risk-on/risk-off cross-check from QQQ/SPY" ], "invalid_if": [ "USDJPY move is reversed", "exporters fail to outperform broad Japan equity basket" ], "source_freshness": { "fmp": "quote snapshot through 2026-08-18; news 21 in 24h / 36 in 7d", "jquants": "daily bars through 2026-08-18" }, "api_sources": [ "FMP quote", "FMP historical_eod", "FMP stock_news", "J-Quants daily_bars", "J-Quants listed_info" ], "universe_source": "exposure_map", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated cross-market exposure theme.", "tactical": { "theme_id": "exporters", "theme_label": "Exporters", "priority_rank": 3, "priority_score": 0.58, "actionability_score": 0.32, "reviewability_score": 0.32, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "is_primary_theme": false, "us_catalyst": { "label": "USDJPY and US index tone", "direction": "negative", "strength": 0.41, "evidence": [ "QQQ", "SPY", "USDJPY" ] }, "jp_basket_state": { "label": "mixed", "reaction_score": 0.55, "dispersion": 0.29, "state": "mixed" }, "divergence": { "label": "Mixed", "score": 0.56, "expected_direction": "negative", "actual_reaction": "mixed basket reaction", "reason": "The Japan basket is not moving as one group, so theme quality needs an opening check." }, "confidence": { "score": 0.46, "label": "Medium", "components": { "us_signal_strength": 0.41, "jp_basket_fit": 0.81, "recent_reaction_alignment": 0.48, "freshness": 0.86, "liquidity_or_basket_quality": 0.73, "us_driver_agreement": 0.78, "jp_basket_breadth": 0.44, "directional_cleanliness": 0.42, "dispersion_penalty": -0.06, "regime_penalty": -0.05, "missing_data_penalty": -0.0, "basket_size_penalty": -0.0, "driver_dispersion_penalty": -0.03 }, "explanation": "US signal low-medium / JP fit high / driver agreement high / breadth low-medium / freshness high." }, "follow_fade_bias": { "label": "Opening check required", "score": 0.48, "reason": "Theme evidence is mixed, so the Tokyo opening check matters more than score alone." }, "scenario_bias": { "label": "Opening check required", "score": 0.48, "reason": "Theme evidence is mixed, so the Tokyo opening check matters more than score alone." }, "pre_open_watch": [ { "factor": "USDJPY", "watch_type": "risk", "invalidates_when": "FX reverses against exporter support", "reason": "USDJPY is a pre-open check for Exporters quality." }, { "factor": "US index futures", "watch_type": "risk", "invalidates_when": "US risk tone fades before Tokyo open", "reason": "US index futures is a pre-open check for Exporters quality." }, { "factor": "Nikkei futures", "watch_type": "risk", "invalidates_when": "Nikkei futures alignment is absent", "reason": "Nikkei futures is a pre-open check for Exporters quality." }, { "factor": "US peer stocks", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Auto/electronics peers diverge", "reason": "US peer stocks is a pre-open check for Exporters quality." } ], "leaders": [ { "code": "6758", "name": "ソニーグループ", "score": 0.71, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Exporters basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "7267", "name": "本田技研工業", "score": 0.31, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "leader_laggard_note": "", "summary": { "headline": "Exporters is a tactical theme to monitor today.", "body": "Overseas input: USDJPY and US index tone. Tokyo prior-close move in the Japan Exporters basket is mixed. Divergence is Mixed; scenario is Opening check required.", "watchline": "Watch before open: USDJPY, US index futures, Nikkei futures, US peer stocks." }, "source": { "llm_used": false, "summary_generation": "deterministic_template", "us_avg_move": -0.75, "jp_avg_move": 0.23, "jp_avg_volume": 0.68 }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": true, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false } } }, { "lane": "intraday", "symbol": "BTCUSD", "name": "Bitcoin USD", "market": "Crypto", "signal_type": "Intraday Radar", "score": 55, "primary_change": "Relative volume 1.0x / gap +0.0%", "evidence": [ "Relative Volume: 1.0x", "Gap: +0.0%", "Price change: +0.1%", "Catalyst: News within 24h", "Liquidity: High", "Sector Heat: Crypto" ], "sources": [ "FMP" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "catalyst_freshness", "trigger_strength": "watch", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "crypto_24h", "is_top_candidate": false, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "intraday", "symbol": "ETHUSD", "name": "Ethereum USD", "market": "Crypto", "signal_type": "Intraday Radar", "score": 55, "primary_change": "Relative volume 0.9x / gap +0.0%", "evidence": [ "Relative Volume: 0.9x", "Gap: +0.0%", "Price change: -0.0%", "Catalyst: News within 24h", "Liquidity: High", "Sector Heat: Crypto" ], "sources": [ "FMP" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "catalyst_freshness", "trigger_strength": "watch", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "crypto_24h", "is_top_candidate": false, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "intraday", "symbol": "SPY", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF", "market": "US ETF", "signal_type": "Intraday Radar", "score": 55, "primary_change": "Relative volume 0.9x / gap -0.5%", "evidence": [ "Relative Volume: 0.9x", "Gap: -0.5%", "Price change: -0.7%", "Catalyst: News within 24h", "Liquidity: High", "Sector Heat: Major Indices" ], "sources": [ "FMP" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "catalyst_freshness", "trigger_strength": "watch", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "us_regular", "is_top_candidate": false, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} }, { "lane": "intraday", "symbol": "NVDA", "name": "NVIDIA Corporation", "market": "US", "signal_type": "Intraday Radar", "score": 55, "primary_change": "Relative volume 0.9x / gap -2.0%", "evidence": [ "Relative Volume: 0.9x", "Gap: -2.0%", "Price change: -2.3%", "Catalyst: News within 24h", "Liquidity: High", "Sector Heat: Semiconductor / AI" ], "sources": [ "FMP" ], "updated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00", "reason_code": "gap_watch", "trigger_strength": "watch", "market_date": "2026-08-18", "market_date_basis": "source_observation_date", "session": "us_regular", "is_top_candidate": false, "signal_id": "", "driver_market": "", "driver_symbols": [], "driver_event_type": "", "driver_observation_date": "", "driver_as_of": "", "affected_market": "", "affected_symbols": [], "affected_basket_name": "", "japan_trading_date": "", "japan_as_of": "", "alignment_window": {}, "impact_score": 0, "confidence": 0.0, "why_it_matters": "", "next_check": [], "invalid_if": [], "source_freshness": {}, "api_sources": [], "universe_source": "curated_core", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "tactical": {} } ] }