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"Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Major Indices", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:SPY" }, { "symbol": "QQQ", "market": "US ETF", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated US/ETF/FX/Crypto driver in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Major Indices", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:QQQ" }, { "symbol": "8035", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "東京エレクトロン", "code": "80350", "dedupe_key": "JP:8035" }, { "symbol": "6857", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "アドバンテスト", "code": "68570", "dedupe_key": "JP:6857" }, { "symbol": "6723", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "ルネサスエレクトロニクス", "code": "67230", "dedupe_key": "JP:6723" }, { "symbol": "6920", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "レーザーテック", "code": "69200", "dedupe_key": "JP:6920" }, { "symbol": "8698", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "マネックスグループ", "code": "86980", "dedupe_key": "JP:8698" }, { "symbol": "8473", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Crypto", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "SBIホールディングス", "code": "84730", "dedupe_key": "JP:8473" }, { "symbol": "7203", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "トヨタ自動車", "code": "72030", "dedupe_key": "JP:7203" }, { "symbol": "7267", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "本田技研工業", "code": "72670", "dedupe_key": "JP:7267" }, { "symbol": "6758", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "ソニーグループ", "code": "67580", "dedupe_key": "JP:6758" }, { "symbol": "6902", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "USDJPY / Exporters", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "デンソー", "code": "69020", "dedupe_key": "JP:6902" }, { "symbol": "1605", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "INPEX", "code": "16050", "dedupe_key": "JP:1605" }, { "symbol": "5020", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "ENEOSホールディングス", "code": "50200", "dedupe_key": "JP:5020" }, { "symbol": "8058", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "三菱商事", "code": "80580", "dedupe_key": "JP:8058" }, { "symbol": "8001", "market": "JP", "source": "curated_core", "reason": "Curated Japan impact name in the Market Signal Radar core.", "theme_hint": "Energy / Commodities", "priority_hint": 100, "discovered": false, "name": "伊藤忠商事", "code": "80010", "dedupe_key": "JP:8001" }, { "symbol": "FLUX", "market": "US", "source": "fmp_event_extra", "reason": "Bounded FMP earnings-calendar extra prequalified by market movers before liquidity/news filtering.", "theme_hint": "Event Calendar", "priority_hint": 125.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Flux Power Holdings, Inc.", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:FLUX" }, { "symbol": "DVLT", "market": "US", "source": "fmp_event_extra", "reason": "Bounded FMP earnings-calendar extra prequalified by market movers before liquidity/news filtering.", "theme_hint": "Event Calendar", "priority_hint": 125.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Datavault AI Inc.", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:DVLT" }, { "symbol": "IPST", "market": "US", "source": "fmp_event_extra", "reason": "Bounded FMP earnings-calendar extra prequalified by market movers before liquidity/news filtering.", "theme_hint": "Event Calendar", "priority_hint": 121.0, "discovered": true, "name": "IP Strategy Holdings, Inc.", "code": "", "dedupe_key": "FMP:IPST" }, { "symbol": "9984", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid technology holding company connected to US tech and AI risk tone.", "theme_hint": "Mega-cap Tech / AI", "priority_hint": 96.0, "discovered": true, "name": "SoftBank Group", "code": "99840", "dedupe_key": "JP:9984" }, { "symbol": "9983", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid index-heavy consumer name sensitive to broad Japan risk tone.", "theme_hint": "Consumer / Index Weight", "priority_hint": 94.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Fast Retailing", "code": "99830", "dedupe_key": "JP:9983" }, { "symbol": "6861", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid automation bellwether linked to global capex and semiconductor cycles.", "theme_hint": "Automation / Semiconductor", "priority_hint": 92.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Keyence", "code": "68610", "dedupe_key": "JP:6861" }, { "symbol": "6146", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid semiconductor equipment candidate connected to US chip moves.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 91.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Disco", "code": "61460", "dedupe_key": "JP:6146" }, { "symbol": "7735", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid semiconductor equipment candidate connected to US chip moves.", "theme_hint": "Semiconductor / AI", "priority_hint": 90.0, "discovered": true, "name": "SCREEN Holdings", "code": "77350", "dedupe_key": "JP:7735" }, { "symbol": "6981", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid electronics exporter connected to USDJPY and US tech demand.", "theme_hint": "Electronics / Exporters", "priority_hint": 88.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Murata Manufacturing", "code": "69810", "dedupe_key": "JP:6981" }, { "symbol": "6762", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid component maker connected to US tech and currency sensitivity.", "theme_hint": "Electronics / Exporters", "priority_hint": 87.0, "discovered": true, "name": "TDK", "code": "67620", "dedupe_key": "JP:6762" }, { "symbol": "6501", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid industrial technology name connected to global capex tone.", "theme_hint": "Industrial Tech", "priority_hint": 86.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Hitachi", "code": "65010", "dedupe_key": "JP:6501" }, { "symbol": "6503", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid automation and electronics name connected to export and capex themes.", "theme_hint": "Industrial Tech", "priority_hint": 85.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Mitsubishi Electric", "code": "65030", "dedupe_key": "JP:6503" }, { "symbol": "6954", "market": "JP", "source": "fallback_seed", "reason": "Liquid factory automation candidate connected to global manufacturing and USDJPY.", "theme_hint": "Automation / Exporters", "priority_hint": 84.0, "discovered": true, "name": "Fanuc", "code": "69540", "dedupe_key": "JP:6954" } ] }, "tactical_summary": { "primary_theme": "Semiconductor", "theme_id": "semiconductor", "signal_id": "cross-us_ai_japan_semiconductor", "primary_impact_theme": { "signal_id": "cross-us_ai_japan_semiconductor", "theme_id": "semiconductor", "theme_label": "Semiconductor", "impact_score": 92, "priority_score": 0.89, "actionability_score": 0.82, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "reviewability_score": 0.82, "divergence": "Aligned", "follow_fade_bias": "Provisional follow", "scenario_bias": "Provisional follow", "confidence": 0.74, "confidence_label": "Medium-High", "pre_open_watch": [ "SOX/NVDA", "Nikkei futures", "USDJPY", "JP basket dispersion" ], "watch_reason": "Semiconductor breadth needs a Tokyo opening check despite aligned overseas input." }, "primary_watch_theme": { "signal_id": "cross-usdjpy_japan_exporters", "theme_id": "exporters", "theme_label": "Exporters", "impact_score": 55, "priority_score": 0.58, "actionability_score": 0.32, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "reviewability_score": 0.32, "divergence": "Mixed", "follow_fade_bias": "Opening check required", "scenario_bias": "Opening check required", "confidence": 0.46, "confidence_label": "Medium", "pre_open_watch": [ "USDJPY", "US index futures", "Nikkei futures", "US peer stocks" ], "watch_reason": "Exporter participation is split while FX and US index tone are active." }, "headline": "Primary impact is Semiconductor; Exporters is the highest watch-risk theme.", "body": "Semiconductor is the main impact theme: US drivers and Tokyo prior-close direction are aligned enough to monitor follow-through. Exporters is the highest watch-risk theme because exporter participation is split while FX and US index tone are active.", "watchline": "Watch before open: SOX/NVDA, Nikkei futures, USDJPY, US index futures.", "divergence": "Aligned", "follow_fade_bias": "Provisional follow", "scenario_bias": "Provisional follow", "confidence": 0.74, "confidence_label": "Medium-High" }, "theme_priority_ranking": [ { "rank": 1, "signal_id": "cross-us_ai_japan_semiconductor", "theme_id": "semiconductor", "theme_label": "Semiconductor", "priority_score": 0.89, "actionability_score": 0.82, "reviewability_score": 0.82, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "divergence": "Aligned", "follow_fade_bias": "Provisional follow", "scenario_bias": "Provisional follow", "confidence": 0.74, "confidence_label": "Medium-High", "pre_open_watch": [ "SOX/NVDA", "Nikkei futures", "USDJPY", "JP basket dispersion" ], "leader_laggard": { "leaders": [ { "code": "8035", "name": "東京エレクトロン", "score": 1.0, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Semiconductor Equipment basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "6723", "name": "ルネサスエレクトロニクス", "score": 0.71, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "note": "" }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": true, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": true }, "is_primary_impact": true, "is_primary_watch": false }, { "rank": 2, "signal_id": "cross-energy_japan_resources_trading_houses", "theme_id": "energy", "theme_label": "Energy / Trading Houses", "priority_score": 0.86, "actionability_score": 0.78, "reviewability_score": 0.78, "watch_priority_score": 0.56, "divergence": "Aligned", "follow_fade_bias": "Provisional follow", "scenario_bias": "Provisional follow", "confidence": 0.74, "confidence_label": "Medium-High", "pre_open_watch": [ "WTI", "XOM/CVX", "USDJPY", "Trading company reaction" ], "leader_laggard": { "leaders": [ { "code": "1605", "name": "ＩＮＰＥＸ", "score": 0.91, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Resources / Trading Houses basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "8001", "name": "伊藤忠商事", "score": 0.56, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "note": "" }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false }, "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false }, { "rank": 3, "signal_id": "cross-usdjpy_japan_exporters", "theme_id": "exporters", "theme_label": "Exporters", "priority_score": 0.58, "actionability_score": 0.32, "reviewability_score": 0.32, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "divergence": "Mixed", "follow_fade_bias": "Opening check required", "scenario_bias": "Opening check required", "confidence": 0.46, "confidence_label": "Medium", "pre_open_watch": [ "USDJPY", "US index futures", "Nikkei futures", "US peer stocks" ], "leader_laggard": { "leaders": [ { "code": "6758", "name": "ソニーグループ", "score": 0.71, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Exporters basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "7267", "name": "本田技研工業", "score": 0.31, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "note": "" }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": true, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false }, "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": true }, { "rank": 4, "signal_id": "cross-crypto_japan_brokers", "theme_id": "crypto", "theme_label": "Crypto / Brokerage", "priority_score": 0.48, "actionability_score": 0.42, "reviewability_score": 0.42, "watch_priority_score": 0.46, "divergence": "Resilient", "follow_fade_bias": "Local-only / fragile", "scenario_bias": "Local-only / fragile", "confidence": 0.31, "confidence_label": "Low-Medium", "pre_open_watch": [ "BTC", "ETH", "COIN/MSTR", "USDJPY" ], "leader_laggard": { "leaders": [ { "code": "8473", "name": "ＳＢＩホールディングス", "score": 0.48, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Crypto / Brokerage basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "8698", "name": "マネックスグループ", "score": 0.37, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "note": "" }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false }, "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false } ], "signals": [ { "id": "cross-us_ai_japan_semiconductor", "title": "US AI → Japan Semiconductor", "lane": "cross_market", "symbol": "US AI → Japan Semiconductor", "impact_score": 92, "confidence": 0.74, "universe_source": "exposure_map", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated cross-market exposure theme.", "tactical": { "theme_id": "semiconductor", "theme_label": "Semiconductor", "priority_rank": 1, "priority_score": 0.89, "actionability_score": 0.82, "reviewability_score": 0.82, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "is_primary_theme": true, "us_catalyst": { "label": "SOX/NVDA strength", "direction": "negative", "strength": 0.96, "evidence": [ "SOXX", "AMD", "SMH", "AVGO" ] }, "jp_basket_state": { "label": "prior close aligned", "reaction_score": 0.86, "dispersion": 0.44, "state": "prior_close_aligned" }, "divergence": { "label": "Aligned", "score": 0.6, "expected_direction": "negative", "actual_reaction": "prior-close aligned", "reason": "US catalyst and Japan basket direction are aligned." }, "confidence": { "score": 0.74, "label": "Medium-High", "components": { "us_signal_strength": 0.96, "jp_basket_fit": 0.92, "recent_reaction_alignment": 0.64, "freshness": 0.86, "liquidity_or_basket_quality": 0.75, "us_driver_agreement": 1.0, "jp_basket_breadth": 1.0, "directional_cleanliness": 0.9, "dispersion_penalty": -0.1, "regime_penalty": 0.0, "missing_data_penalty": -0.0, "basket_size_penalty": -0.0, "driver_dispersion_penalty": -0.04 }, "explanation": "US signal high / JP fit high / driver agreement high / breadth high / freshness high. Basket dispersion reduces signal quality." }, "follow_fade_bias": { "label": "Provisional follow", "score": 0.6, "reason": "The theme is directionally aligned, but breadth and volume quality are still partial." }, "scenario_bias": { "label": "Provisional follow", "score": 0.6, "reason": "The theme is directionally aligned, but breadth and volume quality are still partial." }, "pre_open_watch": [ { "factor": "SOX/NVDA", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "US semiconductor proxies lose overnight strength", "reason": "SOX/NVDA is a pre-open check for Semiconductor quality." }, { "factor": "Nikkei futures", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Futures fail to follow US semiconductor strength", "reason": "Nikkei futures is a pre-open check for Semiconductor quality." }, { "factor": "USDJPY", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "JPY strengthens against the tech/export setup", "reason": "USDJPY is a pre-open check for Semiconductor quality." }, { "factor": "JP basket dispersion", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "8035/6857/6920 do not move in the same direction", "reason": "JP basket dispersion is a pre-open check for Semiconductor quality." } ], "leaders": [ { "code": "8035", "name": "東京エレクトロン", "score": 1.0, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Semiconductor Equipment basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "6723", "name": "ルネサスエレクトロニクス", "score": 0.71, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "leader_laggard_note": "", "summary": { "headline": "Semiconductor is the primary tactical theme today.", "body": "Overseas input: SOX/NVDA strength. Tokyo prior-close move in the Japan Semiconductor Equipment basket is prior close aligned. Divergence is Aligned; scenario is Provisional follow.", "watchline": "Watch before open: SOX/NVDA, Nikkei futures, USDJPY, JP basket dispersion." }, "source": { "llm_used": false, "summary_generation": "deterministic_template", "us_avg_move": -3.77, "jp_avg_move": -4.67, "jp_avg_volume": 0.78 }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": true, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": true } } }, { "id": "cross-energy_japan_resources_trading_houses", "title": "Energy → Japan Resources / Trading Houses", "lane": "cross_market", "symbol": "Energy → Japan Resources / Trading Houses", "impact_score": 72, "confidence": 0.74, "universe_source": "exposure_map", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated cross-market exposure theme.", "tactical": { "theme_id": "energy", "theme_label": "Energy / Trading Houses", "priority_rank": 2, "priority_score": 0.86, "actionability_score": 0.78, "reviewability_score": 0.78, "watch_priority_score": 0.56, "is_primary_theme": false, "us_catalyst": { "label": "US energy majors", "direction": "positive", "strength": 0.68, "evidence": [ "XOM", "CVX" ] }, "jp_basket_state": { "label": "prior close aligned", "reaction_score": 0.82, "dispersion": 0.26, "state": "prior_close_aligned" }, "divergence": { "label": "Aligned", "score": 0.62, "expected_direction": "positive", "actual_reaction": "prior-close aligned", "reason": "US catalyst and Japan basket direction are aligned." }, "confidence": { "score": 0.74, "label": "Medium-High", "components": { "us_signal_strength": 0.68, "jp_basket_fit": 0.92, "recent_reaction_alignment": 0.64, "freshness": 0.86, "liquidity_or_basket_quality": 0.75, "us_driver_agreement": 1.0, "jp_basket_breadth": 1.0, "directional_cleanliness": 0.9, "dispersion_penalty": -0.06, "regime_penalty": 0.0, "missing_data_penalty": -0.0, "basket_size_penalty": -0.0, "driver_dispersion_penalty": -0.02 }, "explanation": "US signal medium-high / JP fit high / driver agreement high / breadth high / freshness high." }, "follow_fade_bias": { "label": "Provisional follow", "score": 0.6, "reason": "The theme is directionally aligned, but breadth and volume quality are still partial." }, "scenario_bias": { "label": "Provisional follow", "score": 0.6, "reason": "The theme is directionally aligned, but breadth and volume quality are still partial." }, "pre_open_watch": [ { "factor": "WTI", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Oil diverges from the energy-major move", "reason": "WTI is a pre-open check for Energy / Trading Houses quality." }, { "factor": "XOM/CVX", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "US energy majors split direction", "reason": "XOM/CVX is a pre-open check for Energy / Trading Houses quality." }, { "factor": "USDJPY", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "FX move offsets resource sensitivity", "reason": "USDJPY is a pre-open check for Energy / Trading Houses quality." }, { "factor": "Trading company reaction", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "8058/8001 do not participate together", "reason": "Trading company reaction is a pre-open check for Energy / Trading Houses quality." } ], "leaders": [ { "code": "1605", "name": "ＩＮＰＥＸ", "score": 0.91, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Resources / Trading Houses basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "8001", "name": "伊藤忠商事", "score": 0.56, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "leader_laggard_note": "", "summary": { "headline": "Energy / Trading Houses is a tactical theme to monitor today.", "body": "Overseas input: US energy majors. Tokyo prior-close move in the Japan Resources / Trading Houses basket is prior close aligned. Divergence is Aligned; scenario is Provisional follow.", "watchline": "Watch before open: WTI, XOM/CVX, USDJPY, Trading company reaction." }, "source": { "llm_used": false, "summary_generation": "deterministic_template", "us_avg_move": 2.04, "jp_avg_move": 1.77, "jp_avg_volume": 0.78 }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false } } }, { "id": "cross-crypto_japan_brokers", "title": "Crypto → Japan Brokers", "lane": "cross_market", "symbol": "Crypto → Japan Brokers", "impact_score": 66, "confidence": 0.31, "universe_source": "exposure_map", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated cross-market exposure theme.", "tactical": { "theme_id": "crypto", "theme_label": "Crypto / Brokerage", "priority_rank": 4, "priority_score": 0.48, "actionability_score": 0.42, "reviewability_score": 0.42, "watch_priority_score": 0.46, "is_primary_theme": false, "us_catalyst": { "label": "BTC/ETH and listed crypto proxies", "direction": "negative", "strength": 0.61, "evidence": [ "MSTR", "COIN", "BTCUSD", "ETHUSD" ] }, "jp_basket_state": { "label": "resilient", "reaction_score": 0.55, "dispersion": 0.11, "state": "resilient" }, "divergence": { "label": "Resilient", "score": 0.57, "expected_direction": "negative", "actual_reaction": "holding up", "reason": "US catalyst is negative, but the Japan basket is not aligned with weakness." }, "confidence": { "score": 0.31, "label": "Low-Medium", "components": { "us_signal_strength": 0.61, "jp_basket_fit": 0.67, "recent_reaction_alignment": 0.25, "freshness": 0.86, "liquidity_or_basket_quality": 0.7, "us_driver_agreement": 0.68, "jp_basket_breadth": 0.25, "directional_cleanliness": 0.18, "dispersion_penalty": -0.02, "regime_penalty": 0.0, "missing_data_penalty": -0.0, "basket_size_penalty": -0.1, "driver_dispersion_penalty": -0.1 }, "explanation": "US signal medium-high / JP fit medium-high / driver agreement medium-high / breadth low / freshness high." }, "follow_fade_bias": { "label": "Local-only / fragile", "score": 0.46, "reason": "Japan basket resilience is visible, but the overseas driver is not supportive." }, "scenario_bias": { "label": "Local-only / fragile", "score": 0.46, "reason": "Japan basket resilience is visible, but the overseas driver is not supportive." }, "pre_open_watch": [ { "factor": "BTC", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Spot crypto direction splits or reverses", "reason": "BTC is a pre-open check for Crypto / Brokerage quality." }, { "factor": "ETH", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Spot crypto direction splits or reverses", "reason": "ETH is a pre-open check for Crypto / Brokerage quality." }, { "factor": "COIN/MSTR", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Listed crypto proxies diverge from spot crypto", "reason": "COIN/MSTR is a pre-open check for Crypto / Brokerage quality." }, { "factor": "USDJPY", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "FX move weakens risk appetite", "reason": "USDJPY is a pre-open check for Crypto / Brokerage quality." }, { "factor": "JP crypto basket reaction", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "8698 and 8473 do not participate together", "reason": "JP crypto basket reaction is a pre-open check for Crypto / Brokerage quality." } ], "leaders": [ { "code": "8473", "name": "ＳＢＩホールディングス", "score": 0.48, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Crypto / Brokerage basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "8698", "name": "マネックスグループ", "score": 0.37, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "leader_laggard_note": "", "summary": { "headline": "Crypto / Brokerage is a tactical theme to monitor today.", "body": "Overseas input: BTC/ETH and listed crypto proxies. Tokyo prior-close move in the Japan Crypto / Brokerage basket is resilient. Divergence is Resilient; scenario is Local-only / fragile.", "watchline": "Watch before open: BTC, ETH, COIN/MSTR, USDJPY." }, "source": { "llm_used": false, "summary_generation": "deterministic_template", "us_avg_move": -2.03, "jp_avg_move": 0.59, "jp_avg_volume": 0.55 }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": false, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false } } }, { "id": "cross-usdjpy_japan_exporters", "title": "USDJPY → Japan Exporters", "lane": "cross_market", "symbol": "USDJPY → Japan Exporters", "impact_score": 55, "confidence": 0.46, "universe_source": "exposure_map", "discovered": false, "discovery_reason": "Curated cross-market exposure theme.", "tactical": { "theme_id": "exporters", "theme_label": "Exporters", "priority_rank": 3, "priority_score": 0.58, "actionability_score": 0.32, "reviewability_score": 0.32, "watch_priority_score": 0.6, "is_primary_theme": false, "us_catalyst": { "label": "USDJPY and US index tone", "direction": "negative", "strength": 0.41, "evidence": [ "QQQ", "SPY", "USDJPY" ] }, "jp_basket_state": { "label": "mixed", "reaction_score": 0.55, "dispersion": 0.29, "state": "mixed" }, "divergence": { "label": "Mixed", "score": 0.56, "expected_direction": "negative", "actual_reaction": "mixed basket reaction", "reason": "The Japan basket is not moving as one group, so theme quality needs an opening check." }, "confidence": { "score": 0.46, "label": "Medium", "components": { "us_signal_strength": 0.41, "jp_basket_fit": 0.81, "recent_reaction_alignment": 0.48, "freshness": 0.86, "liquidity_or_basket_quality": 0.73, "us_driver_agreement": 0.78, "jp_basket_breadth": 0.44, "directional_cleanliness": 0.42, "dispersion_penalty": -0.06, "regime_penalty": -0.05, "missing_data_penalty": -0.0, "basket_size_penalty": -0.0, "driver_dispersion_penalty": -0.03 }, "explanation": "US signal low-medium / JP fit high / driver agreement high / breadth low-medium / freshness high." }, "follow_fade_bias": { "label": "Opening check required", "score": 0.48, "reason": "Theme evidence is mixed, so the Tokyo opening check matters more than score alone." }, "scenario_bias": { "label": "Opening check required", "score": 0.48, "reason": "Theme evidence is mixed, so the Tokyo opening check matters more than score alone." }, "pre_open_watch": [ { "factor": "USDJPY", "watch_type": "risk", "invalidates_when": "FX reverses against exporter support", "reason": "USDJPY is a pre-open check for Exporters quality." }, { "factor": "US index futures", "watch_type": "risk", "invalidates_when": "US risk tone fades before Tokyo open", "reason": "US index futures is a pre-open check for Exporters quality." }, { "factor": "Nikkei futures", "watch_type": "risk", "invalidates_when": "Nikkei futures alignment is absent", "reason": "Nikkei futures is a pre-open check for Exporters quality." }, { "factor": "US peer stocks", "watch_type": "opening_check", "invalidates_when": "Auto/electronics peers diverge", "reason": "US peer stocks is a pre-open check for Exporters quality." } ], "leaders": [ { "code": "6758", "name": "ソニーグループ", "score": 0.71, "reason": "Stronger recent reaction inside the Japan Exporters basket." } ], "laggards": [ { "code": "7267", "name": "本田技研工業", "score": 0.31, "reason": "Theme fit is present, but recent reaction is weaker than basket peers." } ], "leader_laggard_note": "", "summary": { "headline": "Exporters is a tactical theme to monitor today.", "body": "Overseas input: USDJPY and US index tone. Tokyo prior-close move in the Japan Exporters basket is mixed. Divergence is Mixed; scenario is Opening check required.", "watchline": "Watch before open: USDJPY, US index futures, Nikkei futures, US peer stocks." }, "source": { "llm_used": false, "summary_generation": "deterministic_template", "us_avg_move": -0.75, "jp_avg_move": 0.23, "jp_avg_volume": 0.68 }, "primary_flags": { "is_primary_impact": false, "is_primary_watch": true, "legacy_is_primary_theme": false } } } ], "methodology": { "version": "tactical-layer-v1.1", "llm_used": false, "summary_generation": "deterministic_template", "score_policy": "uncalibrated_heuristic", "score_explanation": "Scores are deterministic, uncalibrated heuristics for ranking attention, not backtested probabilities.", "generated_at": "2026-08-19T06:42:09+09:00" } }